The Italian retail sector is undergoing a period of rapid transformation, with decisions to open new stores not always reflecting actual spending patterns. Announced development plans confirm around 5,580 new stores per year and over 33,000 new hires. However, performance data reveals significant discrepancies between territorial investments and actual returns. Many consumers have adopted savings strategies, limiting themselves to the essentials and seeking convenience.
Where Openings Happen (Retail Trends)
Sector Analysis
From a sector perspective, some segments are driving the expansion of the commercial network more than others. According to Confimprese data, the most active sectors in terms of new openings are:
- · Clothing and accessories – approximately 2,340 stores,
- · Food service (QSR and others) – approximately 1,278 new openings
- · Other retail (home furnishings, electronics, telephony, personal care, etc.) – recovering after a post-pandemic decline, with approximately 1,962 new openings.
These figures show an increase of +8.4% compared to 2024, driven mainly by food franchising and beauty retail. Food service leads investments with +12% growth in openings, while clothing shows signs of saturation in prime locations but is accelerating in shopping malls and retail parks.
Territorial Analysis
Northern Italy and large cities maintain their lead with around 60% of new openings, with Lombardy confirming its position at the top in terms of the number of new businesses launched. However, alongside the Lombardy powerhouse, regions in central and southern Italy are also emerging: Campania and Lazio are among the most dynamic areas for new commercial enterprises, a sign of entrepreneurial vitality spreading beyond the traditional northern center of gravity. Southern Italy is accelerating its recovery with 31.6% of new businesses launched between 2023 and 2025. In other words, retail chains are extending their networks to southern regions and areas that were previously less covered, focusing on local markets considered promising.
It should be noted that the growth in openings mainly concerns organized retail (franchise or directly managed chains). At the same time, traditional independent retailers are struggling to keep pace: in 2024, there was a strongly negative balance between openings and closures of independent stores, with over 61,000 closures compared to 23,000 new openings.
Where Spending Happens (Purchasing Behavior)
Spending and Regional Disparities
In parallel with the expansion of the sales network, it is essential to examine where and how Italians really spend their money to assess the balance between commercial supply and demand. According to the latest ISTAT data, household consumption expenditure remained essentially stable compared to the previous year. The data show a +1.3% increase in retail sales in value terms in the first six months of 2025, but with a -0.3% decline in volume, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. Food sales grew by +2.8% in value terms, while non-food sales fell by -0.3%.
The Northwest leads per capita spending with growth of +2.1% compared to the national average, benefiting from greater purchasing power and a higher density of premium retail outlets. The South shows mixed signals: -0.5% in overall spending but +5.6% in packaged consumer goods, indicative of the priority given to essential goods.
Product Categories: Winning vs Weak
Approximately 80% of spending is allocated to non-food goods and services (€2,222 out of €2,755 per month) and the remaining 20% to food and beverages.
The winning categories include beauty (perfumes +4.3% in May 2025), drugstores (consumer goods +2.9% in Q3 2024), and foodservice (+8% pipeline and +5.0% volumes in the South). These sectors show perfect alignment between planned openings and sales performance. In summary, the 2025 consumer favors affordable, experiential products linked to everyday well-being.
Weak categories include fast fashion clothing (-3.4% June 2025), furniture and textiles (-2.9%), and consumer electronics (-0.2% Q3 2024 volumes). These sectors show overinvestment in openings relative to actual demand, suggesting a need for strategic repositioning.
Comparative Analysis and Strategic Implications
Comparing the two world, where openings are occurring and where spending, is taking place- reveals discrepancies that deserve strategic attention.
- · Sector consistency/demand: The strong commitment to foodservice is justified by the growing demand for restaurants. Conversely, clothing shows possible contradictions between new openings and weakened consumption.
- · Selected geography: The North, with its high spending power, appears to be more stable ground for new openings, while the South may offer opportunities, but with more gradual returns and the need for suitable formats.
- · Focus on reality and services: In declining sectors, success depends on the in-store experience (events, personalized advice, omnichannel) rather than mere physical expansion.
- · Digital brands opening stores: Brands born online are investing in physical stores as a form of experiential marketing and to increase customer loyalty. Their approach, often data-driven, also brings innovation to traditional retail.
In summary, in 2025, it is not sufficient to simply expand the network: it is necessary to do so in synergy with real consumption data. Companies that can calibrate location, assortment, and format based on local spending power and that integrate in-store services and technologies will be able to build high-quality, sustainable networks even in today’s competitive markets.
