Today, opening a store is no longer a decision based on intuition or simple “field experience”; it is a strategic choice guided by cities, data, and technology read together. Urban contexts change rapidly: entire micro-neighborhoods emerge as new centers of attraction, while some streets that were once golden now struggle. Faced with this scenario, you should ask yourself:
- “Does it still make sense to open here?”
- “What is the real potential of this micro-basin?”
- “How much will a two-month delay on a new opening cost us today?”
These are variables that determine the ROI of the first year. And 2026 is just around the corner.
The City as Data: Reading Urban Patterns
The way we view cities has completely changed. The dichotomy between “center vs. suburbs” no longer exists. What matters today are micro-basins, real attractions, emerging polarizations, and measurable transit flows. In Italy, we have experienced a decade of “commercial desertification” in some areas: between 2012 and 2024, almost 118,000 retail stores closed, a phenomenon reported by Confcommercio.
At the same time, new hubs have emerged: for example, redeveloped suburban areas or former “dormitory” zones that have become attractive commercial destinations thanks to coworking, youth residences, and services. Data on footfall as of June 30, 2025, confirms that visits to Italian shopping centers were up +3% on the same period last year, a sign that physical retail is alive and well, just moving to different locations.
In short, cities are not just “historic centers.” In 2025, it will be important to identify the “oases” in what could otherwise be a commercial desert. The message for those opening stores is clear: geography and urban data now go hand in hand.
Data as a Competitive Advantage: Making Decisions Based on Numbers
What data really matters when planning a new opening? Here it is, in 7 operational points, with related implications:
Footfall and actual traffic:
How many people actually pass by the property every day? At what times of day, and with what seasonal trends? In 2025, rough estimates will no longer be acceptable: IoT sensors and surveys will provide accurate figures on pedestrian and vehicle traffic. For example, location intelligence platforms now offer one-click analysis of pedestrian traffic on a street, distinguishing between days and even the origin of visitors.
Customer catchment area and origin
It is not enough to know how many people pass by, but also who they are and where they come from. Are they residents of the neighborhood? Commuters arriving from other areas? Hit-and-run tourists? This demographic and behavioral information defines sales potential. For example, some advanced analyses track “shared visitors” between areas: how many people from one neighborhood visit another. This helps to understand whether a new location will attract people only from the neighborhood or from outside the area as well . Knowing that, say, 30% of visitors to Area X come from a wealthier neighboring district can tip the balance in favor of a particular site.
Direct and indirect competition
Map out who else is already present in the area. Not only direct competitors in your segment, but also complementary attractions. A “trendy” neighborhood with boutiques, beauty salons, and chic gyms may be ideal for a fashion brand if the market is not saturated. You need to ask yourself: how many stores similar to yours are there within a certain radius? And how are they doing? A well-done location intelligence analysis compares the coverage of existing products/services with local demand. This allows you to identify gaps in the market to fill (or, conversely, avoid placing yourself where there is excessive supply).
Occupancy costs and CAPEX impact
This is where the financial figures come into play. How much will the initial investment (renovation, furnishings, systems) and annual costs (rent, utilities) affect the store’s accounts? Scenarios need to be constructed: “If CAPEX rises by 15% due to unforeseen circumstances, does it still make sense to open?” It’s better to know beforehand. Some brands assign a score to locations by combining potential revenue data (footfall × conversion rate × average receipt) with estimated costs: they look for a balance, a minimum ROI. The data helps you say “no” sensibly: perhaps location A would also have good traffic, but if the owner asks for an above-market rent or if the store needs to be completely redone (high CAPEX), then perhaps location B, a little more out of the way but with much lower costs, generates a greater return. Today, these assessments are made in Excel, fed by data, not sentiment.
Authorization procedures and bureaucratic delays
Each location has its own “institutional” uncertainties: obtaining municipal licenses, building permits, authorizations for illuminated signs, etc. Every month lost here is a month of lost revenue. Therefore, the data to be collected is: what authorizations are required and how long do they typically take in that location? Estimate the time-to-open.
Work timeline and construction risks
Be honest about timing. Every project starts with an optimistic schedule, but reality often presents obstacles: a delay by the supplier, an unexpected structural issue with the property, adverse weather conditions for outdoor work, etc. This is where “historical” data helps: how long did similar projects take in the past? On average, setting up a standard store could take 8-10 weeks: but if we know that a particular municipality imposes reduced working hours on construction sites, or that many companies close in August, we need to take this into account. A good project plan includes time buffers at critical points. The competitive advantage lies in time-to-market.
In practice, successful retailers are those who transform this data into decisions. Many brands have already started doing so. Some use advanced platforms to compare multiple locations simultaneously, saving days of site visits. For example, the Teddy group uses a location intelligence tool that allows it to “contextualize” a potential location in half an hour, saving 2 days of work that a development manager would otherwise have spent on travel and manual calculations. Even when it comes to closures, we take a scientific approach: for example, by cross-referencing declining sales and footfall in an area, we can decide to close or relocate a store before it starts to generate losses. The bottom line is clear: data is a competitive advantage because it removes bias and short-sightedness from decision-making.
Confimprese has found that 90% of retailers are planning new openings, but only 50% are planning closures, a sign that the market is selective, hybrid, and undergoing restructuring. The vacancy rate in Italian shopping centers has stabilized between 3-8%, a sign that equilibrium has been reached.
Checklist for those Planning to Open Stores in 2026
Always evaluate multiple location options:
Don’t settle for the first idea. Don’t settle for the first proposal “that everyone likes.” Compare two or three options using an objective grid: flows, catchment area, rent, estimated CAPEX, competition, authorization times. The right question is: “Where does it make the most sense to invest 1 euro of CAPEX over the next 5 years?”
Build a realistic timeline (and add buffers)
Once you have chosen the location, map out the entire process leading up to the opening: due diligence, design, supplier selection, paperwork, construction, testing, and set-up. Always use “prudent” timeframes (if the SCIA usually takes 45 days, allow 60), identify bottlenecks, and add margins for critical steps.
In summary: be optimistic about results, pessimistic about forecasts.
Carefully examine (and negotiate) offers from General Contractors
If you entrust the work to a General Contractor (which is common for turnkey stores), read the estimates carefully. What do they include and what do they not include? For example: is rubble disposal included? Who takes care of fire safety procedures? Is there a set number of hours of architect assistance on site? Then check the technical specifications: do the proposed materials comply with your brand guidelines and expected quality? An offer that is too low sometimes hides omissions that will re-emerge as extra-cost variations. It is better to make everything clear beforehand, even if it means spending 5-10% more on a contract, knowing that it covers everything.
Check authorizations and regulations before signing contractsControlla autorizzazioni e normative prima di firmare contratti
1. Before securing a property, check with technicians and lawyers:
- urban planning/landscape restrictions
- intended use
- local regulations (signs, outdoor seating areas, opening hours)
- status and power of utilities
- any exit clauses if permits are not granted.
The goal is to avoid the classic “oops” moment after signing, when you discover that you cannot perform a crucial procedure or that the wait times are extended by months.
Monitor progress every week (and act on weak signals)
Implement a weekly (or even biweekly) reporting system with the Project Manager or site manager in the field: short meeting or call, check progress vs. schedule, problems that have arisen, decisions to be made. If you see a deviation, for example, the flooring team is 3 days behind, don’t wait to intervene. Reallocate resources, request overtime, perhaps move another activity in parallel if possible. Keeping your attention high also creates the right pressure on suppliers and GCs: they know that the customer is up to speed. Use digital tools if necessary; there are shared construction management platforms where each player updates the status task by task.
Prepare for day-1as an event (and a new beginning)
The opening is not the end of the work, it is the beginning of the store’s life. Coordinate staff training, merchandise loading, checkout and system testing, final cleaning, and any opening events in advance. Plan a full test run 2–3 days before the opening to verify that everything is working and that the store is set up according to the concept. The difference between an excellent rollout and a botched one often comes down to the final details.
Following this checklist establishes a specific mindset: data-driven decisions, meticulous planning, constant attention to the construction site. In the next article, we will go into detail about how technology can make each of these steps even more solid and predictable.